Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

The Complicated Politics of Free Trade

Unrestricted Trade Makes for Strange Political Bedfellows

by Scott Keeter and Richard Morin
January 4, 2007

Crafting effective U.S. trade policies in an era of rapid economic globalization is tough. But the politics of free trade are even tougher -- particularly for Democrats, according to a recent national survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Overall, the poll found that no consensus has emerged within either party over whether free trade helps or hurts the nation's economy. As might be expected, Republicans and Democrats did hold different views on trade, on average. But these differences were typically modest. And on several key issues the partisan divide was smaller than the divisions that exist between liberals and moderate or conservative Democrats.

In a few instances these ideological differences have turned partisanship on its head, with liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans holding virtually identical views on the merits of unrestricted trade.

The Pew poll, conducted Dec. 6-10 with 1,502 randomly selected adults, found that liberal Democrats are often more likely than are party moderates or conservatives to see the advantages of free trade and to downplay or dismiss its potential negative consequences. Among Republicans, fewer and more modest differences exist between the conservative and moderate wings of the party.

For example, conservative and moderate Democrats are significantly more liable than liberal Democrats to say that their family's financial situation has been hurt by trade agreements (46% of conservative and moderate Democrats say this, compared with 32% of liberal Democrats).

Conservative and moderate Democrats are also significantly more likely to say that free trade slows down the economy (41%) than are liberal Democrats (29%). And more liberal Democrats (35%) than their conservative and moderate counterparts (24%) say that trade keeps prices down. But there is no Democratic split on the impact of trade on wages and jobs -- both groups see trade as lowering wages and leading to job losses.

In important ways, the views of liberal Democrats on several key issues surrounding the trade debate are significantly closer to those of Republicans than they are to moderates or conservatives within their own party.

For example, a 35% plurality of all Democratic liberals say free trade leads to economic growth--virtually identical to the proportion of conservative Republicans (35%) or moderates (34%) who express this view. In sharp contrast, 20% of moderate or conservative Democrats say free trade stimulates the national economy. Similarly, 48 percent of all liberal Democrats see the impact of unrestricted trade as generally positive for the country, a view shared by 49% of all conservative Republicans, 53% of GOP moderates but 41% of moderate or conservative Democrats.

Thirty-eight percent of liberal Democrats and 43% of all Republicans also say free trade has helped them financially, a view shared by a significantly smaller proportion (28%) of all moderate or conservative Democrats.

These ideological divisions reflect other longstanding divides within the party, the survey found. Better educated and more affluent Americans, regardless of party, generally view free trade more positively; within the Democratic Party these more advantaged Americans also are more likely to say they are politically liberal. At the same time, union members and blacks--two demographic groups that disproportionately identify themselves as Democrats--tended to express more doubts about free trade, and majorities of both groups identify themselves as political moderates or conservatives.

But on some questions, liberal, moderate and conservative Democrats expressed similar views. Half of all Democrats regardless of ideological persuasion said free trade helped workers in developing countries compared with larger majorities of GOP moderates (61%) and conservatives (74%). And nearly half of all liberal, moderate and conservative Democrats agreed that free trade depresses wages of American workers--a view shared by only a slightly smaller share of Republicans.

Fears about the national economy and worries about their own pocketbook also help to shape attitudes toward trade. According to the poll, nearly half (49%) of those who rate their personal finances as either "excellent" or "good" view free trade positively compared with 40% who call their financial condition "only fair" or "poor". Similarly, four in 10 (43%) who offered positive assessments of their own financial condition said free trade benefited their families directly, compared with three in ten (30%) of those in more precarious financial straits.

More broadly, the survey found that Americans expressed far more doubts about trade than saw it as advantageous. More than four in 10 (45%) on balance were more likely to see free trade as having a negative impact in seven key areas, including their own personal finances, jobs, wages and prices. In contrast, three in 10 were more positive than negative in their assessments, with the remainder expressing a mixed view on trade.

For more analysis of Pew's survey on trade, see "Free Trade Agreements Get a Mixed Review".